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Thread: The Grand Solar Minimum

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    "Form is paramount.
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    by Robert Prechter.

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    "Form is paramount.
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    by Robert Prechter.

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    "Form is paramount.
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    by Robert Prechter.

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    https://www.iceagenow.info/fastest-decline-solar-activity-9300-years/

    Fastest decline in solar activity in 9,300 years


    July 19, 2017 by Robert


    “The recent prolonged solar minimum and subsequent weak solar cycle 24 have led to suggestions that the grand solar maximum may be at an end,” says this study on nature.com.
    The study, published in 2015, looked at past variations of solar activity. In 2010, the study found, scientists estimated a mere 8% chance of a return to Maunder Minimum-like conditions within the next 40 years.
    However, “the decline in solar activity has continued, to the time of writing, and is faster than any other such decline in 9,300 years. (Italics added)

    “If this recent rate of decline is added to the analysis, the 8% probability estimate is now raised to between 15 and 20%,” the paper continues. (I think the chances are far higher than that.)
    “Numerous studies have identified links between past climate and solar variability42,43,” the paper points out. “During the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715), very few sunspots were seen despite regular observations44.”
    “The Maunder Minimum coincided with more severe winters in the UK and continental Europe,” the researchers agree. “On longer timescales, a grand minimum of solar activity, the Homeric Minimum (∼2,750–2,550 years before present), affected climate conditions through western Europe.”
    The authors foresee a gradual descent to Maunder Minimum-like conditions, which will be last from a few decades to more than 100 years.
    Unfortunately, they then pay obeisance to the Great God Global Warming, saying that once the grand solar minimum ends, global warming will continue.
    Of course they couched their warning in more scientific terms: “Such a prolonged solar minimum would do little to substantially offset or delay the warming due to projected increases in long-lived greenhouse gases,” is how they put it.
    Uh huh.
    I wonder how many of the survivors will be worried about global warming after billions of people have died of starvation or been killed in wars to obtain food and arable land.
    See entire paper, entitled “Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum”

    https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms8535
    "Form is paramount.
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    by Robert Prechter.

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    https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms8535/figures/2

    Annual mean surface temperature response for future solar experiments.


    From: Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum

    Difference in near-surface temperature (°C) between (a) EXPT-A and (b) EXPT-B and CTRL-8.5 for the period 2050–2099. Solid white contours indicate significance with a 95% confidence interval.



    "Form is paramount.
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    by Robert Prechter.

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    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/19/aint-no-sunshine-winter-darkest-europe

    Ain't no sunshine: winter is one of darkest ever for parts of Europe


    Brussels had less than 11 hours of sun last month, while Lille has had less than three in January



    Jon Henley, European affairs correspondent

    @jonhenley

    Fri 19 Jan 2018 11.09 ESTFirst published on Fri 19 Jan 2018 10.10 EST













    Paris had only 10 hours of sunshine in the first half of January. Photograph: Christophe Simon/AFP/Getty ImagesSunshine is in short supply across a swathe of north-west Europe, shrouded in heavy cloud from a seemingly never-ending series of low pressure systems since late November and suffering one of its darkest winters since records began.
    If you live in Brussels, 10 hours and 31 minutes was your lot for the entire month of December. The all but benighted inhabitants of Lille in France got just two hours, 42 minutes through the first half of January.
    “Sound the alarm and announce the disappearance,” read a despairing headline in photon-deprived northern France’s regional paper, La Voix du Nord. “A star has been kidnapped. We still have no sign of life from the sun.”
    Belgium’s Royal Meteorological Institute has declared December 2017 “the second darkest month since 1887”, when it began measuring, after the 10.5 hours of sun recorded at its Uccle weather station last month were beaten only by a bare 9.3 hours in 1934.
    France’s northern Hauts-de-France region did better with 26 hours of sunshine in December, but that was against a norm of 48.
    But Météo France described the paltry 2.7 hours of sun recorded from 1 to 13 January in Lille, the region’s biggest city, as “exceptional”. The January average stands at 61.4 hours, according to the agency – meaning Lille and its unfortunate residents were deprived of perhaps 30 hours’ worth of rays in the first part of
    The previous low of 13 hours, dating back to 1948, could well be beaten, Frédéric Decker of Météo News told La Voix du Nord this week. “The forecast isn’t looking too great,” he said. “The weather’s going to stay pretty damp and dull.”
    Rouen in Normandy had an even more depressing first half of the month, with just 2.5 hours of sunshine compared with a full-month norm of 58.6, Météo France said, while Paris’s 10 hours were also a far cry from the 62.5 hours the capital usually averages in January.
    Even southern French sun-traps such as Bordeaux and Marseille fell a very long way short of their usual ray quota in the first half of the month, basking in just 10.3 and 26.9 hours respectively against monthly averages of 96 and 92.5.
    Health experts say a shortage of sunshine can lead to seasonal depression, whose symptoms include a lack of energy, a desire to sleep and a perceived need to consume greater quantities of sugar and fat.
    The science of Sad: understanding the causes of ‘winter depression’




    Read more



    “Exposure to morning light inhibits the secretion of melatonin that promotes sleep and favours the production of hormones that will stimulate the body,” Matthieu Hein, a psychiatrist at the Erasmus Hospital in Brussels, said.
    In the absence of light, we are “rather slow, tired, which is characteristic of SAD, or seasonal affective disorder”. Florent Durand, who runs a massage studio in Lille, told France 3 TV that his €39 light therapy sessions were booked out.
    The inhabitants of north-west Europe, however, can count themselves lucky. Moscow recorded just six paltry minutes of direct sunshine in the whole of December, shattering the previous record low of three hours, set in 2000.
    The Russian capital normally averages a bleak 18 hours of sunshine in the last month of the year. “December was just amazing,” Roman Vilfond of Moscow State University’s meteorological unit told the Tass news agency.
    “The darkest month in the history of our weather observations. When they hear this, people will say: ‘Now I know why I was depressed.’” The daily Moskovsky Komsomolets reported a surge in visits to psychiatrists.
    "Form is paramount.
    Price is approximate.
    Time is least reliable."

    by Robert Prechter.

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    "Form is paramount.
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    The solar solution



    February 28, 2009

    Written by Myron Love



    Manitoba research is fine-tuning such greenhouses for cold climates

    The University of Manitoba solar greenhouse is 22 by 100 feet.
    photos courtesy manitoba hydro

    Over the past year, researchers from the University of Manitoba have completed a fourth round of tests in ongoing efforts to reduce heating costs, extend the growing season and improve the overall effectiveness of solar greenhouse operations in cold climates.

    The findings are also setting the stage for testing solar greenhouses in northern communities where cost savings and a longer growing season could pay off in socio-economic and health benefits for people in such communities.

    The research was conducted at Blue Lagoon Florascape, a solar energy greenhouse near St. Francois Xavier, which is just west of Winnipeg. The greenhouse, originally built by Dr. Chong Zhang, a professor of Biosystems Engineering at the University of Manitoba, is based on a Chinese design. It measures 22 feet wide, 100 feet long, and is about 13 feet high. A wall of concrete, eight inches thick and just over seven feet high, runs the length of the greenhouse to form the north wall. The concrete stores solar energy during the day for release at night to keep plants warm.

    LEDs in study
    Buried ductwork converges at this plastic drum, one of two in the system for releasing warm exhaust air at night.
    Channels were dug for the network of plastic ducts used with the earth charger system.
    The intake for hot air from the upper levels of the greenhouse, connected to the earth charger system.
    SEVERAL NEW TECHNOLOGIES INVOLVED IN RECENT TESTS
    ■ The most recent tests, notes Manitoba Hydro engineer Ray Borys, looked at a novel plant growth lighting system for extending the growing season during the winter months, a new type of plastic covering for the greenhouse, and an “earth charger” system that, much like the solar wall, is designed to store solar energy during the day for release at night.

    Basil and cucumber plants were grown in the greenhouse and monitored under a cluster of light-emitting diodes (LEDs), under a conventional high-pressure sodium (HPS) grow light, and with no supplementary light source. Plant performance was compared to determine the effect of the lighting systems.

    Generallly speaking, “greenhouse plants grow best when they receive 16 hours of light, followed by eight hours of darkness each day,” Borys says. “In Manitoba’s winter, however, this is not possible through sunlight alone.”

    The supplemental lighting systems were controlled by a timer to power on at sunset and remain on long enough for the plants to receive a combined light exposure of 16 hours.

    Underneath the plants were 130-watt heat mats. These inch-thick mats, two feet by four feet in size, are a type of electric heating blanket that warms the plants’ root zones.

    ROOTZONE HEATING FOUND TO BE EXTREMELY EFFECTIVE
    ■ Earlier research, Borys says, has shown that rootzone heating permits growers to lower ambient temperatures in the greenhouse by up to 10ºC without affecting plant performance.

    The LED lighting system consists of a 22.5 x 22.5 x 5.5-inch metal fixture, with five blue LED bulbs (each with 60 diodes), interspersed between eight red LED bulbs (each with 180 diodes). On average, the LED bulbs last more than 50,000 hours. The system is recommended for lighting nine to 16 square feet of space.

    The high-pressure sodium (HPS) lighting system consists of a large HPS bulb, reflective shade, ballast and the necessary hardware. “It can illuminate a table area of 16 to 36 square feet,” Borys says. The bulb comes with a one-year warranty, and an average lifespan of 8,760 hours.

    A comparison of plant height, leaf span, and stalk height was performed for the basil and cucumber trials. Borys reports that 28 days after germination, the basil under the LED lamp was 33.3 per cent taller than basil grown without a supplementary light source. Results for the basil growing under the HPS lamp were inconclusive.

    ‘Holland’ and ‘Carmen’ cucumber varieties were used in the second trial.

    Fourteen days after germination, the ‘Holland’ variety, under the LED and HPS lamps, had average leaf spans 45.8 per cent and 44.4 per cent larger, as well as plant height 41.1 per cent and 7.5 per cent greater, than those grown without any supplementary light source.

    The ‘Carmen’ variety, grown under the LED and HPS lamps, had average leaf spans 54.7 per cent and 37.5 per cent larger, as well as plant heights 57.7 per cent and 14.1 per cent greater, than those grown without any supplementary light source.

    Visually, it was apparent that the plants under the LED system performed the best, as they were taller, fuller and lusher.

    “The findings suggest that LED lighting promotes plant growth and health better than conventional HPS lighting, at about one-tenth the cost in electricity,” Borys notes. “However, the LED lighting cluster cost roughly four times as much as the HPS lighting.”

    NEW COVERING MATERIAL TRAPS MORE HEAT AT NIGHT

    ■ The greenhouse was covered using the conventional approach of air inflated double polyethylene. The difference was in the poly itself, which was of a special type designed to retain heat in the greenhouse by reducing long wave radiation from the greenhouse at night.

    According to the manufacturer’s specs, the 8-mil poly used to cover the greenhouse allows 89 per cent of sunlight to enter the greenhouse during the day, and blocks 85 per cent of the heat radiated by the plants and earth from escaping at night.

    The cost of covering the greenhouse with 8-mil poly, including shipping costs, was $650 ($1.77/square metre), compared with $1.45/square metre for conventional 6-mil poly.

    Where solar radiation and outdoor temperatures are similar, it can be expected that the 8-mil poly will maintain a slightly warmer indoor temperature than conventional 6-mil poly.

    An earth charger system, Borys notes, is an inexpensive subsoil heat storage system designed to test whether air drawn from near the peak during the day could warm the soil sufficiently to help keep the greenhouse warm at night. The system works much like the solar wall to keep temperatures warmer overnight.

    Four 55-gallon barrels were buried in the earthen floor of the third section of the greenhouse, two along each of the north and south edges. Thirty pieces of perforated, four-inch, flex tubing extended from the north barrels to the south barrels, installed in 10 trenches. In each trench, the tubing was buried at three-foot, two-foot and one-foot depths below the soil surface. The barrels at the north edge of the section were connected by ductwork to ceiling fans.

    EARTH CHARGER SYSTEM INSTALLED TOO LATE IN TRIAL

    ■ During the day, warm air from the top of the structure was drawn through the buried tubes, losing heat energy to the surrounding soil as it was moved along. The air was then expelled as cooler air from the south barrels.

    During the night, the cool air drawn in by the fans picked up heat energy from the soil and was expelled as warmer air into the greenhouse.

    Preliminary research on a similar system at a greenhouse in North Carolina showed that 20 per cent of incoming solar energy was captured by the earth charger during the day. Two-thirds of the solar energy captured was released to the greenhouse at night. The remaining one-third remained in the soil, raising its temperature.

    The warming effects of the earth charger system were minimal because the ductwork was installed toward the end of January, after the ground was frozen. “Because of the late installation,” he says, “the initial soil temperature was so low that, despite warm air bringing heat energy as it circulated through the pipes, the soil was not able to reach high enough temperatures to effectively heat the air at night. The earth charger system should also be tested for a full season.”

    The cost of the earth charger system was about $550, not including installation, Borys notes. However, renting trenching equipment or hiring manual labour for the installation can be costly, and an electrician was needed to install the fans and rheostat, adding to the cost.

    “Our results continue to support the feasibility of growing vegetables in solar greenhouses over the winter months in Manitoba,” Borys observes, “but point to the need for a source of supplementary heat to avoid losing a crop following a series of cold days with low solar radiation. An internal thermal blanket for cutting heat loss from the greenhouse at night is an important option for further Research.” ■
    "Form is paramount.
    Price is approximate.
    Time is least reliable."

    by Robert Prechter.

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    The intake for hot air from the upper levels of the greenhouse, connected to the earth charger system.
    "Form is paramount.
    Price is approximate.
    Time is least reliable."

    by Robert Prechter.

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    Preparing for coming global cooling may be critical to survival

    Posted on June 20, 2014 by Don
    I could get on the bandwagon and tell you that there will be global warming in the future, but even if it actually happened it will not have much of an impact on most that live on this planet today. Global cooling, on the other hand, does really matter to those alive on the earth today. If the earth cools, world food production will fall and many poor people would starve to death.
    If the temperature falls just 3 degrees Centigrade, global grain production would be reduced by one-quarter. The U.S. would no longer be an exporter of grain and many nations of the world would be living in famine. Can you imagine what that would do to food prices and world stability?
    There are many that are predicting such cooling, but they do not get much press. Global warming hysteria that has taken over science because ruling oligarchies choose to hype global warming as their means to gain further control over people and to redistribute the wealth of the middle-class to the poor. The fact that most of science still supports global warming should not surprise you. Science is now controlled by money and money is controlled by the oligarchs controlling government.
    Most cooling projections come from models that are linked to solar cycles. The general climate on earth over the last thousand years or more can be determined by tree rings and ice cores and is recorded in various historical accounts.
    This article titled A Cold Dawn Coming will give you a whiff of what I am speaking of. The article contains a number of charts that gets the point across. Our present solar cycle with low solar activity shows every indication that we are heading into a cyclical Grand Minimum (30 to 100 years of cooling) which could even progress into a Maunder Minimum (little ice age) especially if increased volcanic activity were to aid in further cooling.
    The following chart may or may not show solar minimums, it best shows the speed of climate change and how solar output and volcanic activity may have interacted in the past.



    One thing this chart should tell you is that climate on earth changes rapidly and man really has nothing to do with it. Swings in temperature are actually the norm, climate change is always taking place on earth. Climate change is not occurring because of man. The reality displayed in this chart actually makes the big debate about man’s role in climate change nothing but trivia.
    It just makes no sense for man to think that he can control climate by regulating the little extra natural carbon gas that he is contributing. People need to get all this in focus before government regulations rob the middle-class of $trillions. Climate change hype is nothing but a lying scheme to destroy the middle-class so that the super-rich and those they empower can rule over all people on the globe.
    We need to keep in mind that any global warming of the last warming cycle actually stopped in 2000. If the cold of 2014 is any indication, we will now be rapidly descending into an extended period of global cooling.
    Don’t believe recent contradictory government figures that tell us that we just had the warmest period in history. People working for Government spin data and lie in case you have not figured that out yet. Employees of government tell their bosses what they know they want to hear. Their performance ratings, pay, and promotions all depend upon it.
    Use your own observation skills. The Great Lakes had the most ice cover ever recorded last winter. There was record cold in the U.S. everywhere but in the Southwest. Globally the Antarctic ice sheet is about the largest ever recorded and the glaciers in the Himalayan Mountains are increasing in spite of the lies Gore and others told. The polar bears are also thriving. So don’t be one of those brainwashed saps that supports the global warming agenda based on the spin that they heard from the complicit lying “progressives” that are controlling most media.
    That does not mean we will not have a warm year sometime in the next few years because climate is based on many factors. One year does not mean much when you consider the complexity of the atmosphere and the ocean currents that determine temperatures. However, the lack of Solar activity for the last solar cycle is observable and it indicates that a Grand Minimum has probably already begun. That makes it very likely that the overall temperature trend on earth will turn colder for at least the next three decades.
    You might have heard the lies that the drought in western states is caused by global warming. That is nonsense. Warm air holds more moisture. Warmer air would bring more precipitation not less. When the Pacific southwest of California warms above normal, California gets a lot of rain. Droughts in California and the Southwest are more likely the results of cooler than normal waters in the Pacific southwest of California.
    The present drought in the West has not lasted anywhere near as long as many that came before it. Droughts have occurred regularly throughout recorded history in Western America. Just because fifty million people moved to the deserts of the Southwest in the last fifty years, does not mean that the desert climate should cooperate with their irrational exuberance for having enough water there.
    Also, do not believe the hype you hear in media that ongoing global warming is causing an increase in local storms. We actually have had less hurricanes and tornadoes during the last decade than usual. Storms always will happen, but they have not been increasing in frequency or intensity because of “global warming”.
    I opened this article suggesting that if there is any global warming, it is not likely to affect those living in America today in any significant way. However, if there is global cooling like I believe is more likely, it could impact our lives significantly real soon.
    The first thing that will happen is shorter growing seasons and crop failures. That would bring shortages and higher food prices. Corn based ethanol would not be around much longer. Gas and electricity prices would also rise because there will be more demand than supply. During the unusual cold of last winter, people were paying very stiff prices for propane and natural gas prices doubled.
    In one of the cold spells of last winter, the grid almost failed, because the power companies had problems moving frozen coal to power up more coal powered generators. With the wacko EPA plan that would shut down our coal plants, there would be no spare coal capacity, and the grid would probably fail in the midst of a future cold wave. Think about what that means to you. Because it will become your reality if those that hate coal get their way in America. Coal still produces more than half of all our electricity.
    Look at the charts in the link above and notice how fast climate could change. By next decade, we could be going through cold that you have never seen in your life, and it could last for the rest of your life.



    "Form is paramount.
    Price is approximate.
    Time is least reliable."

    by Robert Prechter.

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